Roma vs Lazio Prediction

Serie A 25/26 · Sun 17 May, 12:00
Roma
20 Full time
Lazio
Roma 2–0 Lazio

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (58%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 58%
Draw 26%
Away 16%

💡 Roma are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 67.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 67.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1601 v 1518 Roma rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Roma is the stronger side on Power Rating (1601 vs 1518).
  • Roma is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Roma
Form Index
Roma
Goal expectation
Roma
Home advantage
Roma

Green = favours Roma · Blue = favours Lazio. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RomaWDWWW2.6 ppg
LazioLWDWL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Roma1601
Lazio1518
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model48% · 37% · 15%
Power Rating61% · 14% · 26%
Machine-learning50% · 37% · 12%

AI match preview

Roma hold a 58% probability of securing a home win against Lazio in this Serie A clash, with a moderate confidence level of 67/100. The model forecasts a low-scoring encounter, projecting 1.04 expected goals for Roma and 0.46 for Lazio, while the most likely scoreline is a goalless draw. Given the 19% chance of over 2.5 goals and 25% for both teams to score, this match may lean towards a tight defensive battle; remember, these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.04 – 0.46

Most likely score

0-0

24% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 19%

Under 81%

Both teams to score

Yes 25%

No 75%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadio Olimpico Rome, Italy Capacity 70,634 · grass
Partly cloudy · 21.3°C
Feels like 21.1°C Wind 8 km/h Rain chance 0%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Roma 2–0 Lazio
Sept 2025 Lazio 0–1 Roma