AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sat 28 Jan, 20:00
AZ Alkmaar
55 Full time
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar 5–5 Utrecht

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (55%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 55%
Draw 23%
Away 22%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are favourites — about 55 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 64.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 64.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1601 v 1531 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 1.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v Utrecht

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1601 vs 1531).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours Utrecht. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarWDWWW2.6 ppg
UtrechtWDDLW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1601
Utrecht1531
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model45% · 24% · 31%
Power Rating58% · 15% · 27%
Machine-learning51% · 31% · 18%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar host Utrecht in an Eredivisie clash where the home side holds a 55% chance of victory, according to model projections, with a 23% probability of a draw. Expected goals suggest a tight contest (1.99 for AZ vs. 1.64 for Utrecht), making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline despite the slight edge for AZ. With a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 71% probability both teams score, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical forecasts and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.64

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 70%

Under 30%

Both teams to score

Yes 71%

No 29%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2023 AZ Alkmaar 5–5 Utrecht
Oct 2022 Utrecht 1–2 AZ Alkmaar