Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sun 29 Jan, 13:30
Excelsior
14 Full time
Ajax
Excelsior 1–4 Ajax

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (65%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 16%
Draw 18%
Away 65%

💡 Ajax are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 78.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 78.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1440 v 1585 Ajax rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.0 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Excelsior v Ajax

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Why we predict this

  • Ajax is the stronger side on Power Rating (1585 vs 1440).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.1 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Excelsior
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Excelsior

Green = favours Excelsior · Blue = favours Ajax. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ExcelsiorLWLWL1.2 ppg
AjaxDDDDD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Excelsior1440
Ajax1585
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model21% · 24% · 55%
Power Rating31% · 20% · 49%
Machine-learning20% · 25% · 55%

AI match preview

Ajax head to Excelsior with a strong 65% probability to claim victory, supported by a confidence rating of 78/100, while the model suggests a closely contested match with a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline. The expected goals tally favors Ajax at 2.06 compared to Excelsior's 1.24, indicating a moderately open game with a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood of both teams scoring. These projections highlight statistical tendencies rather than certainties—please enjoy responsibly and remember to gamble only if you are 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.24 – 2.06

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 64%

Under 36%

Both teams to score

Yes 63%

No 37%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2023 Excelsior 1–4 Ajax
Oct 2022 Ajax 7–1 Excelsior