AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Fri 10 Feb, 19:00
AZ Alkmaar
50 Full time
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar 5–0 Excelsior

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (74%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 74%
Draw 16%
Away 10%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 89.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 89.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1593 v 1425 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index 2.2 v 0.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1593 vs 1425).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours Excelsior. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarWWWDD2.2 ppg
ExcelsiorLWLLD0.8 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1593
Excelsior1425
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model76% · 15% · 9%
Power Rating70% · 12% · 18%
Machine-learning70% · 23% · 7%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar enter this Eredivisie clash with a strong 74% projected chance of victory, backed by an expected goals tally of 2.99 compared to Excelsior’s 1.04. The model suggests a competitive encounter likely ending 2-1, with a 77% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% chance both teams score. These projections highlight AZ as favorites, but outcomes can vary—please remember to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.99 – 1.04

Most likely score

2-1

8% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 77%

Under 23%

Both teams to score

Yes 62%

No 38%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2023 AZ Alkmaar 5–0 Excelsior
Oct 2022 Excelsior 2–1 AZ Alkmaar