Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sun 5 Mar, 11:15
Excelsior
14 Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior 1–4 Sparta Rotterdam

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (48%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 25%
Draw 26%
Away 48%

💡 Sparta Rotterdam are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 55.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 55.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1381 v 1529 Sparta Rotterdam rated higher
Form Index 0.2 v 1.0 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam

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Why we predict this

  • Sparta Rotterdam is the stronger side on Power Rating (1529 vs 1381).
  • Sparta Rotterdam is in clearly better recent form (1.0 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sparta Rotterdam
Form Index
Sparta Rotterdam
Goal expectation
Sparta Rotterdam
Home advantage
Excelsior

Green = favours Excelsior · Blue = favours Sparta Rotterdam. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ExcelsiorLDLLL0.2 ppg
Sparta RotterdamDDWLL1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Excelsior1381
Sparta Rotterdam1529
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 31% · 45%
Power Rating31% · 20% · 50%
Machine-learning23% · 26% · 51%

AI match preview

Excelsior faces Sparta Rotterdam in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 48%, though the probabilities suggest a closely contested match with a 26% chance of a draw. Expected goals indicate a tight game with 0.93 for Excelsior and 1.36 for Sparta, and a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline. With only a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and 47% probability for both teams to score, this matchup could hinge on narrow margins — remember these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.36

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 40%

Under 60%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2023 Excelsior 1–4 Sparta Rotterdam
Jan 2023 Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 Excelsior