PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sun 23 Apr, 14:30
PSV Eindhoven
30 Full time
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Ajax

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (47%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 47%
Draw 25%
Away 28%

💡 PSV Eindhoven are favourites — about 47 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 52.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 52.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1641 v 1656 Ajax rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 2.0 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on PSV Eindhoven v Ajax

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1641 vs 1656).
  • PSV Eindhoven is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 2.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.2 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
PSV Eindhoven
Goal expectation
PSV Eindhoven
Home advantage
PSV Eindhoven

Green = favours PSV Eindhoven · Blue = favours Ajax. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PSV EindhovenWDWWW2.6 ppg
AjaxWLDWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven1641
Ajax1656
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model54% · 23% · 23%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 33%
Machine-learning48% · 30% · 22%

AI match preview

PSV Eindhoven face Ajax in a tightly contested Eredivisie clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 47%, while a draw and away win stand at 25% and 28% respectively. The expected goals suggest a moderately open game, with PSV projected to score 2.21 and Ajax 1.42, although the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. With a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 68% probability of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an entertaining encounter; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.21 – 1.42

Most likely score

1-1

9% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 70%

Under 30%

Both teams to score

Yes 68%

No 32%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Philips Stadion Eindhoven, Netherlands Capacity 35,000 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 PSV Eindhoven 3–0 Ajax
Nov 2022 Ajax 1–2 PSV Eindhoven