Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sat 6 May, 21:00
Ajax
00 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax 0–0 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (53%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 53%
Draw 24%
Away 23%

💡 Ajax are favourites — about 53 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 62.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 62.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1640 v 1606 Ajax rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1640 vs 1606).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Ajax

Green = favours Ajax · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AjaxLDWWL1.4 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLDLWW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Ajax1640
AZ Alkmaar1606
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model48% · 26% · 27%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning49% · 30% · 21%

AI match preview

Ajax host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 53%, with a confidence rating of 62 out of 100. The expected goals suggest a competitive match with Ajax edging 1.80 to 1.30, though the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. There’s a 60% chance the game sees over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability both teams score, highlighting an open contest; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.30

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 60%

Under 40%

Both teams to score

Yes 62%

No 38%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Johan Cruijff ArenA Amsterdam, Netherlands Capacity 55,865 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Ajax 0–0 AZ Alkmaar
Sept 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Ajax