Nijmegen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sun 21 May, 14:30
Nijmegen
03 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Nijmegen 0–3 AZ Alkmaar

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (53%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 24%
Draw 24%
Away 53%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are favourites — about 53 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 60.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 60.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1475 v 1616 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index 0.8 v 2.0 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Nijmegen v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1616 vs 1475).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Nijmegen

Green = favours Nijmegen · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NijmegenDLWLL0.8 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLWWDW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Nijmegen1475
AZ Alkmaar1616
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model18% · 24% · 58%
Power Rating31% · 20% · 49%
Machine-learning26% · 29% · 45%

AI match preview

Nijmegen face a tough challenge at home against AZ Alkmaar, with the model favoring an away win at 53% likelihood and a moderate confidence of 60/100. While AZ is expected to net around two goals compared to Nijmegen's one, the most probable scoreline remains a balanced 1-1 draw, reflecting the close contest ahead. Fans can also anticipate a lively match with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability of both teams scoring; remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.08 – 2.02

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 60%

Under 40%

Both teams to score

Yes 59%

No 41%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Nijmegen 0–3 AZ Alkmaar
Sept 2022 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Nijmegen