AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction

Eredivisie 22/23 · Sun 28 May, 14:30
AZ Alkmaar
12 Full time
PSV Eindhoven
AZ Alkmaar 1–2 PSV Eindhoven

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 26%
Away 33%

💡 AZ Alkmaar have a slight edge — leaning AZ Alkmaar, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1631 v 1664 PSV Eindhoven rated higher
Form Index 2.6 v 2.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v PSV Eindhoven

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1631 vs 1664).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours PSV Eindhoven. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarWWDWW2.6 ppg
PSV EindhovenWWWWD2.6 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1631
PSV Eindhoven1664
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 24% · 33%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning42% · 30% · 28%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar host PSV Eindhoven in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 41%, though a draw or away victory remain well within reach. The expected goals suggest a tight contest with 1.95 for AZ and 1.70 for PSV, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open, attacking game—but remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.70

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 71%

Under 29%

Both teams to score

Yes 71%

No 29%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 AZ Alkmaar 1–2 PSV Eindhoven
Nov 2022 PSV Eindhoven 0–1 AZ Alkmaar