Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 23/24 · Sun 28 Jan, 11:15
Heerenveen
22 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen 2–2 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (43%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 28%
Draw 28%
Away 43%

💡 AZ Alkmaar have a slight edge — leaning AZ Alkmaar, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 47.7/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.7
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1461 v 1564 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index WLLDL v LWLLD Heerenveen 0.8 · AZ Alkmaar 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1564 vs 1461).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Heerenveen

Green = favours Heerenveen · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HeerenveenWLLDL0.8 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLWLLD0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Heerenveen1461
AZ Alkmaar1564
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 30% · 41%
Power Rating34% · 24% · 42%
Machine-learning20% · 37% · 43%

AI match preview

Heerenveen host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 43%, though a draw or home victory remain plausible with 28% each. The expected goals suggest a tight contest, with 1.15 for Heerenveen and 1.40 for AZ, and the most likely scoreline projected as 1-1. With a 53% chance both teams score and under 50% probability for over 2.5 goals, this match could be a closely contested affair; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.40

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 47%

Under 53%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2024 Heerenveen 2–2 AZ Alkmaar
Oct 2023 AZ Alkmaar 3–0 Heerenveen