Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 23/24 · Wed 3 Apr, 18:45
Heracles
50 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Heracles 5–0 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (62%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 16%
Draw 22%
Away 62%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 73.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 73.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1416 v 1597 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index LDLWL v WDWWW Heracles 0.8 · AZ Alkmaar 2.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Heracles v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1597 vs 1416).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Heracles

Green = favours Heracles · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HeraclesLDLWL0.8 ppg
AZ AlkmaarWDWWW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Heracles1416
AZ Alkmaar1597
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model12% · 20% · 68%
Power Rating28% · 17% · 55%
Machine-learning12% · 36% · 52%

AI match preview

Heracles host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model favors an away victory at 62% probability, reflecting AZ's stronger offensive output with an expected 2.32 goals compared to Heracles' 0.92. A 0-2 scoreline is the most likely outcome, while there is also a 63% chance the match will see over 2.5 goals and a 55% probability both teams score. These projections are statistical estimates, so please remember to gamble responsibly and only bet if you are 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.92 – 2.32

Most likely score

0-2

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 Heracles 5–0 AZ Alkmaar
Sept 2023 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Heracles