PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 23/24 · Sat 6 Apr, 18:45
PSV Eindhoven
51 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven 5–1 AZ Alkmaar

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (69%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 69%
Draw 17%
Away 14%

💡 PSV Eindhoven are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 84.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 84.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1732 v 1568 PSV Eindhoven rated higher
Form Index DWWLW v DWWWL PSV Eindhoven 2.0 · AZ Alkmaar 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on PSV Eindhoven v AZ Alkmaar

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • PSV Eindhoven is the stronger side on Power Rating (1732 vs 1568).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.9 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
PSV Eindhoven
Home advantage
PSV Eindhoven

Green = favours PSV Eindhoven · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PSV EindhovenDWWLW2.0 ppg
AZ AlkmaarDWWWL2.0 ppg
Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven1732
AZ Alkmaar1568
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model63% · 24% · 13%
Power Rating69% · 12% · 19%
Machine-learning83% · 7% · 11%

AI match preview

PSV Eindhoven enters this Eredivisie clash with a strong 69% probability of securing a home win against AZ Alkmaar, backed by an 84/100 confidence rating. The model projects a likely 2-0 victory, with expected goals favoring PSV at 1.87 to AZ’s 0.75, suggesting a solid defensive display from the hosts. While the chances of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring hover around 49% and 46% respectively, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.87 – 0.75

Most likely score

2-0

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Stadium & conditions

Philips Stadion Eindhoven, Netherlands Capacity 35,000 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 PSV Eindhoven 5–1 AZ Alkmaar
Dec 2023 AZ Alkmaar 0–4 PSV Eindhoven