Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie 23/24 · Wed 24 Apr, 21:00
Ajax
22 Full time
Excelsior
Ajax 2–2 Excelsior

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (71%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 71%
Draw 15%
Away 14%

💡 Ajax are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 86.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 86.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1558 v 1388 Ajax rated higher
Form Index DWDLW v DLLLW Ajax 1.6 · Excelsior 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Ajax v Excelsior

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Why we predict this

  • Ajax is the stronger side on Power Rating (1558 vs 1388).
  • Ajax is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.1 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Ajax
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Ajax

Green = favours Ajax · Blue = favours Excelsior. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AjaxDWDLW1.6 ppg
ExcelsiorDLLLW0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Ajax1558
Excelsior1388
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model72% · 15% · 12%
Power Rating70% · 12% · 18%
Machine-learning71% · 10% · 19%

AI match preview

Ajax enter this Eredivisie clash with a strong 71% probability of securing a home win against Excelsior, backed by an expected goals tally of 3.11 to 1.33. The model suggests an engaging match with a most likely scoreline of 3-1, and a high chance (82%) of seeing over 2.5 goals, alongside a 71% likelihood that both teams will find the net. These projections highlight probable trends but remember, football can be unpredictable—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

3.11 – 1.33

Most likely score

3-1

8% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 82%

Under 18%

Both teams to score

Yes 71%

No 29%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

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Stadium & conditions

Johan Cruijff ArenA Amsterdam, Netherlands Capacity 55,865 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2024 Ajax 2–2 Excelsior
Aug 2023 Excelsior 2–2 Ajax