Ajax vs Waalwijk Prediction

Eredivisie 24/25 · Sat 11 Jan, 17:45
Ajax
21 Full time
Waalwijk
Ajax 2–1 Waalwijk

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (82%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 82%
Draw 12%
Away 6%

💡 Ajax are strong favourites — roughly 8 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1615 v 1380 Ajax rated higher
Form Index WDLWW v DDLLD Ajax 2.0 · Waalwijk 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Ajax is the stronger side on Power Rating (1615 vs 1380).
  • Ajax is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Ajax
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Ajax

Green = favours Ajax · Blue = favours Waalwijk. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AjaxWDLWW2.0 ppg
WaalwijkDDLLD0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Ajax1615
Waalwijk1380
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model86% · 10% · 4%
Power Rating75% · 12% · 13%
Machine-learning76% · 22% · 2%

AI match preview

Ajax enter their Eredivisie clash against Waalwijk as strong favorites, with an 82% probability of securing a home win and a high confidence rating of 95/100. The model projects a dominant performance from Ajax, expecting 3.43 goals compared to Waalwijk’s 0.72, with the most likely scoreline being 3-0. There is a 78% chance the match will see over 2.5 goals, while both teams scoring is a 50/50 prospect; remember, these are statistical projections and any wagering should be done responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

3.43 – 0.72

Most likely score

3-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 78%

Under 22%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 68+ matches)

AjaxWaalwijk
5.3 Corners 4.3
1.5 Cards 1.6
9.6 Fouls 9.5

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Johan Cruijff ArenA Amsterdam, Netherlands Capacity 55,865 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 Ajax 2–1 Waalwijk
Sept 2024 Waalwijk 0–2 Ajax