PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 24/25 · Sat 11 Jan, 20:00
PSV Eindhoven
22 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven 2–2 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (65%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 65%
Draw 22%
Away 14%

💡 PSV Eindhoven are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 76.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 76.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1680 v 1560 PSV Eindhoven rated higher
Form Index WWWLW v WWWWW PSV Eindhoven 2.4 · AZ Alkmaar 3.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on PSV Eindhoven v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • PSV Eindhoven is the stronger side on Power Rating (1680 vs 1560).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (3.0 vs 2.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.2 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
PSV Eindhoven
Home advantage
PSV Eindhoven

Green = favours PSV Eindhoven · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PSV EindhovenWWWLW2.4 ppg
AZ AlkmaarWWWWW3.0 ppg
Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven1680
AZ Alkmaar1560
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model70% · 20% · 9%
Power Rating65% · 12% · 23%
Machine-learning48% · 44% · 8%

AI match preview

PSV Eindhoven enter this Eredivisie clash as clear favorites with a 65% projected chance to secure victory against AZ Alkmaar, backed by an expected goals tally of 2.17 to 0.69. The model suggests a 2-0 home win as the most probable scoreline, reflecting PSV's attacking edge and defensive solidity. While just over half of simulations anticipate more than 2.5 goals, both teams scoring is less likely, so consider these statistical probabilities carefully and gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.17 – 0.69

Most likely score

2-0

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 54%

Under 46%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Philips Stadion Eindhoven, Netherlands Capacity 35,000 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2025 PSV Eindhoven 2–2 AZ Alkmaar
Oct 2024 AZ Alkmaar 1–2 PSV Eindhoven