Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 24/25 · Sun 2 Mar, 11:15
Heerenveen
31 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen 3–1 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (46%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 28%
Draw 25%
Away 46%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are favourites — about 46 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 51.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 51.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1460 v 1582 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index LLDDD v DLWWW Heerenveen 0.6 · AZ Alkmaar 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1582 vs 1460).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Heerenveen

Green = favours Heerenveen · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HeerenveenLLDDD0.6 ppg
AZ AlkmaarDLWWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Heerenveen1460
AZ Alkmaar1582
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model28% · 33% · 39%
Power Rating33% · 22% · 45%
Machine-learning27% · 14% · 58%

AI match preview

Heerenveen host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 46%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 25% chance. Expected goals are close, with 0.97 for Heerenveen and 1.17 for AZ, suggesting a competitive match likely to see both sides on the scoresheet, supported by a 45% BTTS probability. While the most probable scoreline is 1-1, the relatively low over 2.5 goals chance at 36% indicates a moderately tight game; remember these projections are statistical estimates and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.97 – 1.17

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 36%

Under 64%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2025 Heerenveen 3–1 AZ Alkmaar
Sept 2024 AZ Alkmaar 9–1 Heerenveen