Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 24/25 · Sun 16 Mar, 15:45
Ajax
22 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Ajax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (56%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 56%
Draw 24%
Away 21%

💡 Ajax are favourites — about 56 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 64.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 64.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1678 v 1562 Ajax rated higher
Form Index WWWWW v LWWWL Ajax 3.0 · AZ Alkmaar 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Ajax v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • Ajax is the stronger side on Power Rating (1678 vs 1562).
  • Ajax is in clearly better recent form (3.0 vs 1.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Ajax
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Ajax

Green = favours Ajax · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AjaxWWWWW3.0 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLWWWL1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Ajax1678
AZ Alkmaar1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model55% · 28% · 17%
Power Rating65% · 12% · 23%
Machine-learning67% · 22% · 12%

AI match preview

Ajax hosts AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model favors a home win at 56%, with a projected 1.58 to 0.78 expected goals advantage. The most probable scoreline is a narrow 1-0 victory for Ajax, while the chances of both teams scoring or the match exceeding 2.5 goals remain below 50%. These projections offer insights based on statistics, but remember to gamble responsibly and consider the unpredictability of football (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.58 – 0.78

Most likely score

1-0

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 44%

No 56%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Johan Cruijff ArenA Amsterdam, Netherlands Capacity 55,865 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2025 Ajax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar
Dec 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Ajax