Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 24/25 · Sun 13 Apr, 14:30
Heracles
10 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Heracles 1–0 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (44%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 24%
Away 44%

💡 AZ Alkmaar have a slight edge — leaning AZ Alkmaar, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 47.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1480 v 1549 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index WLDWD v LDDDL Heracles 1.6 · AZ Alkmaar 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Heracles v AZ Alkmaar

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1549 vs 1480).
  • Heracles is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
Heracles
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Heracles

Green = favours Heracles · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HeraclesWLDWD1.6 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLDDDL0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Heracles1480
AZ Alkmaar1549
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model30% · 26% · 44%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning49% · 8% · 43%

AI match preview

Heracles host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model gives the visitors a 44% chance to win, slightly edging Heracles at 33%, with draws at 24%. The expected goals suggest a competitive game, with 1.40 for Heracles and 1.73 for AZ, and a most likely scoreline of 1-1 reflecting a tight contest. With a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% chance both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open match—but remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.73

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 60%

Under 40%

Both teams to score

Yes 63%

No 37%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2025 Heracles 1–0 AZ Alkmaar
Dec 2024 AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Heracles