AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction

Eredivisie 24/25 · Thu 24 Apr, 18:45
AZ Alkmaar
11 Full time
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 NAC Breda

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (63%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 63%
Draw 22%
Away 16%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 74.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 74.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1538 v 1428 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index DDDLL v DDDLD AZ Alkmaar 0.6 · NAC Breda 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1538 vs 1428).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.2 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
NAC Breda
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours NAC Breda. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarDDDLL0.6 ppg
NAC BredaDDDLD0.8 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1538
NAC Breda1428
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model68% · 21% · 11%
Power Rating65% · 12% · 24%
Machine-learning54% · 36% · 10%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar enter this Eredivisie clash with a strong 63% chance of securing a home win, backed by a model confidence of 74/100 and an expected goals tally of 2.20 versus NAC Breda's 0.80. The most probable outcome is a 2-0 victory for AZ, with a moderate 58% likelihood of the match producing over 2.5 goals and an even 50% chance of both teams scoring. These projections are based on statistical models and should be considered as probabilities; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.20 – 0.80

Most likely score

2-0

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 58%

Under 42%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2025 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 NAC Breda
Dec 2024 NAC Breda 1–2 AZ Alkmaar