Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sat 17 Jan, 17:45
Zwolle
31 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Zwolle 3–1 AZ Alkmaar

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (55%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 23%
Draw 22%
Away 55%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are favourites — about 55 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 63.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 63.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1449 v 1520 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index WLWLD v LLDLW Zwolle 1.4 · AZ Alkmaar 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1520 vs 1449).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
Zwolle
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Zwolle

Green = favours Zwolle · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ZwolleWLWLD1.4 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLLDLW0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Zwolle1449
AZ Alkmaar1520
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 31% · 46%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning29% · 15% · 56%

AI match preview

Zwolle host AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model favors an away win with a 55% probability, reflecting AZ's slight edge despite the modest goal difference projected. The expected goals tally suggests a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline and under 2.5 goals being the more probable outcome. Both teams scoring is just under a 50% chance, indicating a balanced offensive effort; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.39

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 41%

Under 59%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Zwolle 3–1 AZ Alkmaar
Sept 2025 AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Zwolle