AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Wed 21 Jan, 17:45
AZ Alkmaar
11 Full time
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Excelsior

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (66%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 66%
Draw 19%
Away 15%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 78.6/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 78.6
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1503 v 1443 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index LDLWL v WLWLD AZ Alkmaar 0.8 · Excelsior 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v Excelsior

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1503 vs 1443).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.1 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
Excelsior
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours Excelsior. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarLDLWL0.8 ppg
ExcelsiorWLWLD1.4 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1503
Excelsior1443
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model70% · 16% · 14%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning56% · 33% · 11%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar enters this Eredivisie clash with a strong 66% probability of securing a home win against Excelsior, backed by a confidence rating of 78.6 out of 100. The model forecasts an attacking encounter, projecting 3.12 expected goals for AZ and 1.45 for Excelsior, with a most likely scoreline of 3-1. With an 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% probability of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an engaging match, though these are statistical projections and all betting should be done responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

3.12 – 1.45

Most likely score

3-1

8% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 83%

Under 17%

Both teams to score

Yes 74%

No 26%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Excelsior 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
Jan 2026 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Excelsior