Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 1 Feb, 11:15
Excelsior
22 Full time
Ajax
Excelsior 2–2 Ajax

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (51%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 25%
Draw 23%
Away 51%

💡 Ajax are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 58.7/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 58.7
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1451 v 1574 Ajax rated higher
Form Index WLDDD v WDWDW Excelsior 1.2 · Ajax 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Excelsior v Ajax

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Why we predict this

  • Ajax is the stronger side on Power Rating (1574 vs 1451).
  • Ajax is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Ajax
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Excelsior

Green = favours Excelsior · Blue = favours Ajax. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ExcelsiorWLDDD1.2 ppg
AjaxWDWDW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Excelsior1451
Ajax1574
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model26% · 26% · 48%
Power Rating33% · 22% · 46%
Machine-learning22% · 19% · 60%

AI match preview

Excelsior hosts Ajax in an Eredivisie clash where the visitors hold a 51% chance of victory, though a draw at 23% and a home win at 25% remain plausible outcomes. The model predicts a competitive game with an expected goals tally of 1.24 for Excelsior and 1.76 for Ajax, while the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw. With a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% chance both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open contest, but remember these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.76

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 58%

Under 42%

Both teams to score

Yes 60%

No 40%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Excelsior 2–2 Ajax
Nov 2025 Ajax 1–2 Excelsior