AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 8 Feb, 13:30
AZ Alkmaar
11 Full time
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (38%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 25%
Away 37%

💡 AZ Alkmaar have a slight edge — leaning AZ Alkmaar, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 38.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1494 v 1572 Ajax rated higher
Form Index WLDWL v DWDWD AZ Alkmaar 1.4 · Ajax 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v Ajax

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Why we predict this

  • Ajax is the stronger side on Power Rating (1572 vs 1494).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Ajax
Form Index
Ajax
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours Ajax. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarWLDWL1.4 ppg
AjaxDWDWD1.8 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1494
Ajax1572
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 20% · 47%
Power Rating36% · 26% · 38%
Machine-learning40% · 27% · 34%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar welcome Ajax in what promises to be a tightly contested Eredivisie clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 38% compared to 37% for the visitors. Both sides are expected to produce an open game, reflected in a high 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 82% probability that both teams will score, with a 2-2 draw as the most likely outcome. These projections are based on statistical models and should be considered as probabilities rather than certainties; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.13 – 2.52

Most likely score

2-2

7% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 84%

Under 16%

Both teams to score

Yes 82%

No 18%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax
Oct 2025 Ajax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar