Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sat 14 Feb, 17:45
Excelsior
12 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior 1–2 AZ Alkmaar

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (41%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 25%
Away 41%

💡 AZ Alkmaar have a slight edge — leaning AZ Alkmaar, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 43.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1472 v 1495 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index DDDDW v LDWLD Excelsior 1.4 · AZ Alkmaar 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Excelsior v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1472 vs 1495).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
Excelsior
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
Excelsior

Green = favours Excelsior · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ExcelsiorDDDDW1.4 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLDWLD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Excelsior1472
AZ Alkmaar1495
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model30% · 32% · 39%
Power Rating43% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning34% · 16% · 50%

AI match preview

Excelsior hosts AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 41%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 25% chance. The expected goals suggest a tight encounter, with both sides likely to find the net, aligning with the most probable 1-1 scoreline. With under 2.5 goals and a BTTS probability just below 50%, this could be a closely contested match; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.24

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 41%

Under 59%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Excelsior 1–2 AZ Alkmaar
Jan 2026 AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Excelsior