Ajax vs Nijmegen Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sat 21 Feb, 20:00
Ajax
11 Full time
Nijmegen
Ajax 1–1 Nijmegen

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (48%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 48%
Draw 22%
Away 30%

💡 Ajax are favourites — about 48 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 53.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 53.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1582 v 1576 Ajax rated higher
Form Index DWDDW v WWWLD Ajax 1.8 · Nijmegen 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Ajax v Nijmegen

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1582 vs 1576).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.9 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Nijmegen
Goal expectation
Ajax
Home advantage
Ajax

Green = favours Ajax · Blue = favours Nijmegen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AjaxDWDDW1.8 ppg
NijmegenWWWLD2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Ajax1582
Nijmegen1576
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model48% · 25% · 27%
Power Rating48% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning35% · 18% · 47%

AI match preview

Ajax hosts Nijmegen in an Eredivisie clash where the home side holds a 48% chance of victory, though a draw or away win remain plausible outcomes. The model predicts a closely contested match with expected goals of 1.94 for Ajax and 1.43 for Nijmegen, most likely ending in a 1-1 draw. With a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.94 – 1.43

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 65%

Under 35%

Both teams to score

Yes 66%

No 34%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Johan Cruijff ArenA Amsterdam, Netherlands Capacity 55,865 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Ajax 1–1 Nijmegen
Dec 2025 Nijmegen 2–2 Ajax