AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 22 Feb, 15:45
AZ Alkmaar
31 Full time
Sparta Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (47%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 47%
Draw 26%
Away 27%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are favourites — about 47 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 53.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 53.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1507 v 1514 Sparta Rotterdam rated higher
Form Index DWLDW v WWWDD AZ Alkmaar 1.6 · Sparta Rotterdam 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1507 vs 1514).
  • Sparta Rotterdam is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Sparta Rotterdam
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours Sparta Rotterdam. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarDWLDW1.6 ppg
Sparta RotterdamWWWDD2.2 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1507
Sparta Rotterdam1514
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model39% · 24% · 36%
Power Rating46% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning58% · 30% · 12%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar host Sparta Rotterdam in what promises to be a closely contested Eredivisie clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 47% probability, while a draw and away win stand at 26% and 27% respectively. The expected goals are nearly even (1.83 for AZ, 1.76 for Sparta), pointing towards a tight match, with 1-1 emerging as the most likely scoreline. With a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and 71% probability of both teams scoring, this encounter could offer plenty of attacking action; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.76

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 70%

Under 30%

Both teams to score

Yes 71%

No 29%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 AZ Alkmaar 3–1 Sparta Rotterdam
Nov 2025 Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 AZ Alkmaar