Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 1 Mar, 15:45
Utrecht
20 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht 2–0 AZ Alkmaar

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 26%
Away 31%

💡 Utrecht have a slight edge — leaning Utrecht, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1512 v 1521 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index DLWWD v WLDWW Utrecht 1.6 · AZ Alkmaar 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Utrecht v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1512 vs 1521).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
Utrecht
Home advantage
Utrecht

Green = favours Utrecht · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
UtrechtDLWWD1.6 ppg
AZ AlkmaarWLDWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Utrecht1512
AZ Alkmaar1521
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model42% · 30% · 28%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning46% · 22% · 32%

AI match preview

Utrecht hosts AZ Alkmaar in an Eredivisie clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 43%, though a draw or an away victory remain plausible outcomes. Expected goals suggest a tight match with 1.36 for Utrecht and 1.08 for AZ, aligning with the most likely scoreline of 1-1. With only a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability for both teams to score, fans can anticipate a competitive encounter; remember these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.08

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Utrecht 2–0 AZ Alkmaar
Oct 2025 AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Utrecht