PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sat 7 Mar, 19:00
PSV Eindhoven
21 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (69%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 69%
Draw 18%
Away 14%

💡 PSV Eindhoven are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 82.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 82.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1689 v 1507 PSV Eindhoven rated higher
Form Index WWLWW v LDWWL PSV Eindhoven 2.4 · AZ Alkmaar 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on PSV Eindhoven v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • PSV Eindhoven is the stronger side on Power Rating (1689 vs 1507).
  • PSV Eindhoven is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven
Form Index
PSV Eindhoven
Goal expectation
PSV Eindhoven
Home advantage
PSV Eindhoven

Green = favours PSV Eindhoven · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PSV EindhovenWWLWW2.4 ppg
AZ AlkmaarLDWWL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
PSV Eindhoven1689
AZ Alkmaar1507
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model63% · 20% · 18%
Power Rating71% · 12% · 17%
Machine-learning75% · 21% · 4%

AI match preview

PSV Eindhoven enters this Eredivisie clash with a strong 69% chance of securing a home win against AZ Alkmaar, supported by an expected goals tally of 2.55 to 1.33. The model suggests an engaging contest with a most likely scoreline of 2-1, and a 74% probability that the match will see over 2.5 goals, alongside a 69% chance both teams will find the net. These projections offer insight into the game’s potential flow, but remember they are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.55 – 1.33

Most likely score

2-1

9% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 74%

Under 26%

Both teams to score

Yes 69%

No 31%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Philips Stadion Eindhoven, Netherlands Capacity 35,000 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar
Nov 2025 AZ Alkmaar 1–5 PSV Eindhoven