Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 22 Mar, 15:45
Groningen
30 Full time
AZ Alkmaar
Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (37%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 26%
Away 37%

💡 Groningen have a slight edge — leaning Groningen, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 37.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1484 v 1513 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index 0.8 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Groningen v AZ Alkmaar

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1484 vs 1513).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
Groningen
Home advantage
Groningen

Green = favours Groningen · Blue = favours AZ Alkmaar. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
GroningenLLLWD0.8 ppg
AZ AlkmaarWWLLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Groningen1484
AZ Alkmaar1513
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model42% · 30% · 27%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning41% · 25% · 34%

AI match preview

Groningen and AZ Alkmaar are set for a closely contested Eredivisie clash, with both sides holding a 37% chance of victory according to model projections. The expected goals tally suggests a tight encounter, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable scoreline. With a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and BTTS at 50%, fans can anticipate a balanced match; remember, these are statistical projections and please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.06

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Groningen 3–0 AZ Alkmaar
Aug 2025 AZ Alkmaar 4–1 Groningen