AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 12 Apr, 16:45
AZ Alkmaar
30 Full time
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar 3–0 Heerenveen

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (50%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 50%
Draw 24%
Away 26%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are favourites — about 50 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 56.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 56.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1508 v 1550 Heerenveen rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 2.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen

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Why we predict this

  • Heerenveen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1550 vs 1508).
  • Heerenveen is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Heerenveen
Form Index
Heerenveen
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours Heerenveen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarLLWLW1.2 ppg
HeerenveenWWWDW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1508
Heerenveen1550
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model47% · 23% · 30%
Power Rating40% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning43% · 31% · 26%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar host Heerenveen in an Eredivisie clash where the model gives the home side a slight edge with a 50% chance of victory, while a draw and away win stand at 24% and 26% respectively. Expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with AZ projected to score 2.07 and Heerenveen 1.64, and the most probable scoreline being 1-1. With a 72% probability for both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.07 – 1.64

Most likely score

1-1

9% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 72%

Under 28%

Both teams to score

Yes 72%

No 28%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 AZ Alkmaar 3–0 Heerenveen
Nov 2025 Heerenveen 3–1 AZ Alkmaar