Groningen vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sat 2 May, 18:45
Groningen
23 Full time
Excelsior
Groningen 2–3 Excelsior

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (56%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 56%
Draw 22%
Away 22%

💡 Groningen are favourites — about 56 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 65.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 65.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1505 v 1440 Groningen rated higher
Form Index 1.6 v 1 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Groningen v Excelsior

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Why we predict this

  • Groningen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1505 vs 1440).
  • Groningen is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.7 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Groningen
Form Index
Groningen
Goal expectation
Groningen
Home advantage
Groningen

Green = favours Groningen · Blue = favours Excelsior. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
GroningenDWWDL1.6 ppg
ExcelsiorLDLDW1 ppg
Power Rating
Groningen1505
Excelsior1440
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model56% · 27% · 17%
Power Rating57% · 15% · 27%
Machine-learning56% · 21% · 23%

AI match preview

Groningen hosts Excelsior in an Eredivisie clash where the home side holds a 56% chance of victory, backed by a confidence rating of 65/100. Model projections suggest a closely contested match with an expected 1.72 goals for Groningen and 0.86 for Excelsior, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With nearly even odds on both teams scoring and under half the matches surpassing 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate a competitive game; remember, these are statistical forecasts—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.72 – 0.86

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 48%

Under 52%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%

No 51%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Groningen 2–3 Excelsior
Dec 2025 Excelsior 0–2 Groningen