AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 17 May, 14:30
AZ Alkmaar
33 Full time
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (69%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 69%
Draw 17%
Away 13%

💡 AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 83.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 83.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1530 v 1403 AZ Alkmaar rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda

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Why we predict this

  • AZ Alkmaar is the stronger side on Power Rating (1530 vs 1403).
  • AZ Alkmaar is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar
Form Index
AZ Alkmaar
Goal expectation
AZ Alkmaar
Home advantage
AZ Alkmaar

Green = favours AZ Alkmaar · Blue = favours NAC Breda. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AZ AlkmaarWWDDD1.8 ppg
NAC BredaDDLLW1 ppg
Power Rating
AZ Alkmaar1530
NAC Breda1403
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model70% · 19% · 11%
Power Rating66% · 12% · 22%
Machine-learning62% · 25% · 13%

AI match preview

AZ Alkmaar are strong favorites to secure a home win against NAC Breda, with a 69% probability and an expected scoreline around 2-0. The model suggests AZ will score approximately 2.38 goals while limiting NAC to under one, reflecting a solid offensive edge. With a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood both teams scoring, this match promises competitive action, though outcomes can vary—please remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.38 – 0.88

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 AZ Alkmaar 3–3 NAC Breda
Aug 2025 NAC Breda 0–1 AZ Alkmaar