Sparta Rotterdam vs Excelsior Prediction

Eredivisie 25/26 · Sun 17 May, 14:30
Sparta Rotterdam
23 Full time
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 Excelsior

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 26%
Away 29%

💡 Sparta Rotterdam have a slight edge — leaning Sparta Rotterdam, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1446 v 1452 Excelsior rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 1.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Sparta Rotterdam v Excelsior

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1446 vs 1452).
  • Excelsior is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Excelsior
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Sparta Rotterdam

Green = favours Sparta Rotterdam · Blue = favours Excelsior. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Sparta RotterdamDLLDL0.4 ppg
ExcelsiorLDWWD1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Sparta Rotterdam1446
Excelsior1452
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model36% · 29% · 35%
Power Rating46% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning47% · 34% · 19%

AI match preview

Sparta Rotterdam and Excelsior are set for a closely contested Eredivisie clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 45% probability, though a draw or away win remain realistic outcomes. Both teams are expected to produce nearly identical attacking output, with projected goals of 1.40 and 1.37 respectively, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. The match also has a 52% chance of producing over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability of both teams scoring, highlighting the potential for an open game; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.37

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 58%

No 42%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 Excelsior
Sept 2025 Excelsior 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam