Alverca vs Moreirense Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 17 Jan, 18:00
Alverca
21 Full time
Moreirense
Alverca 2–1 Moreirense

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (32%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 32%
Away 35%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 35.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 35.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1461 v 1514 Moreirense rated higher
Form Index WLLLW v DLDWW Alverca 1.2 · Moreirense 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Moreirense is the stronger side on Power Rating (1514 vs 1461).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Moreirense
Form Index
Moreirense
Goal expectation
Moreirense
Home advantage
Alverca

Green = favours Alverca · Blue = favours Moreirense. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlvercaWLLLW1.2 ppg
MoreirenseDLDWW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Alverca1461
Moreirense1514
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 31% · 45%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning21% · 37% · 42%

AI match preview

Alverca and Moreirense are set for a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model suggesting a slight edge to the visitors at 35% and a draw also highly probable at 32%. Expected goals favor Moreirense marginally (1.36 to 0.95), pointing to a balanced encounter that could end in a 1-1 stalemate. With under 2.5 goals and both teams scoring scenarios both likely, fans should anticipate a tight match; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.36

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 41%

Under 59%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Alverca 2–1 Moreirense
Aug 2025 Moreirense 2–1 Alverca