Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Fri 30 Jan, 20:45
Guimaraes
10 Full time
Moreirense
Guimaraes 1–0 Moreirense

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 27%
Away 31%

💡 Guimaraes have a slight edge — leaning Guimaraes, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 45.3/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.3
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1474 v 1511 Moreirense rated higher
Form Index LDWLL v DWWLW Guimaraes 0.8 · Moreirense 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1474 vs 1511).
  • Moreirense is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Moreirense
Form Index
Moreirense
Goal expectation
Guimaraes
Home advantage
Guimaraes

Green = favours Guimaraes · Blue = favours Moreirense. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
GuimaraesLDWLL0.8 ppg
MoreirenseDWWLW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Guimaraes1474
Moreirense1511
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 29% · 33%
Power Rating41% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning24% · 26% · 50%

AI match preview

Guimaraes and Moreirense are set for a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 42%, while a draw or away win remain plausible outcomes. Both teams are expected to produce a tight match with an anticipated 1-1 scoreline and a high probability (57%) of both teams scoring. Over 2.5 goals is marginally favored at 52%, suggesting a moderately open game; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.32

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 57%

No 43%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Guimaraes 1–0 Moreirense
Aug 2025 Moreirense 2–0 Guimaraes