Rio Ave vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 31 Jan, 18:00
Rio Ave
03 Full time
Arouca
Rio Ave 0–3 Arouca

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 25%
Away 33%

💡 Rio Ave have a slight edge — leaning Rio Ave, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 44.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1450 v 1410 Rio Ave rated higher
Form Index DLWLL v DDLWL Rio Ave 0.8 · Arouca 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Rio Ave v Arouca

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1450 vs 1410).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Rio Ave
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
Rio Ave
Home advantage
Rio Ave

Green = favours Rio Ave · Blue = favours Arouca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Rio AveDLWLL0.8 ppg
AroucaDDLWL1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Rio Ave1450
Arouca1410
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 25% · 26%
Power Rating53% · 18% · 29%
Machine-learning56% · 22% · 22%

AI match preview

Rio Ave hosts Arouca in a tightly contested Primeira Liga clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 42%, though a draw and away victory remain plausible outcomes. With expected goals at 1.85 for Rio Ave and 1.32 for Arouca, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline, supported by a 63% chance both teams will score. Over 2.5 goals is also a strong possibility at 61%, indicating an open game with chances at both ends; remember these projections are statistical estimates and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.32

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 61%

Under 39%

Both teams to score

Yes 63%

No 37%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Rio Ave 0–3 Arouca
Aug 2025 Arouca 3–3 Rio Ave