Alverca vs Estrela Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 31 Jan, 20:30
Alverca
11 Full time
Estrela
Alverca 1–1 Estrela

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 28%
Away 27%

💡 Alverca are favourites — about 45 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1459 v 1451 Alverca rated higher
Form Index LLWWL v DWDLL Alverca 1.2 · Estrela 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alverca v Estrela

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1459 vs 1451).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Alverca
Form Index
Alverca
Goal expectation
Alverca
Home advantage
Alverca

Green = favours Alverca · Blue = favours Estrela. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlvercaLLWWL1.2 ppg
EstrelaDWDLL1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Alverca1459
Estrela1451
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 30% · 32%
Power Rating48% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning35% · 33% · 32%

AI match preview

Alverca hosts Estrela in a closely contested Primeira Liga clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 45% probability of victory, while a draw and away win stand at 28% and 27% respectively. The model projects a tight game with an expected goals tally of 1.37 for Alverca and 1.24 for Estrela, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With a 55% chance both teams will score and just under half the probability for over 2.5 goals, fans should anticipate a competitive encounter; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.24

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 48%

Under 52%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Alverca 1–1 Estrela
Aug 2025 Estrela 2–2 Alverca