Sp Lisbon vs Nacional Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 1 Feb, 18:00
Sp Lisbon
21 Full time
Nacional
Sp Lisbon 2–1 Nacional

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (81%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 81%
Draw 12%
Away 7%

💡 Sp Lisbon are strong favourites — roughly 8 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1663 v 1473 Sp Lisbon rated higher
Form Index WWDWW v DLDLW Sp Lisbon 2.6 · Nacional 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Sp Lisbon v Nacional

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Why we predict this

  • Sp Lisbon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1663 vs 1473).
  • Sp Lisbon is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sp Lisbon
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Sp Lisbon
Home advantage
Sp Lisbon

Green = favours Sp Lisbon · Blue = favours Nacional. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Sp LisbonWWDWW2.6 ppg
NacionalDLDLW1.0 ppg
Power Rating
Sp Lisbon1663
Nacional1473
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model78% · 17% · 5%
Power Rating72% · 12% · 17%
Machine-learning91% · 7% · 2%

AI match preview

Sp Lisbon enters this Primeira Liga clash as strong favorites with an 81% chance of securing a home win, supported by an expected goal tally of 2.30 to Nacional’s 0.47. The model projects a most likely 2-0 victory, reflecting a solid defensive display and moderate scoring output. While there’s a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals, both teams scoring is less likely at 35%; remember, these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.30 – 0.47

Most likely score

2-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 35%

No 65%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Sp Lisbon 2–1 Nacional
Aug 2025 Nacional 1–4 Sp Lisbon