Arouca vs Guimaraes Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 7 Feb, 20:30
Arouca
32 Full time
Guimaraes
Arouca 3–2 Guimaraes

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (32%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 32%
Draw 32%
Away 36%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 37.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 37.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1435 v 1484 Guimaraes rated higher
Form Index DLWLW v DWLLW Arouca 1.4 · Guimaraes 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Guimaraes is the stronger side on Power Rating (1484 vs 1435).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Guimaraes
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Guimaraes. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaDLWLW1.4 ppg
GuimaraesDWLLW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1435
Guimaraes1484
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 31% · 36%
Power Rating39% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning17% · 47% · 36%

AI match preview

Arouca and Guimaraes are set for a tightly contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the visitors at 36% compared to a 32% chance for both a home win and a draw. The expected goals are nearly even, suggesting a balanced encounter likely to feature around two goals, with the most probable scoreline being 1-1. With a 50% probability of both teams scoring and only a 42% chance for over 2.5 goals, this match could hinge on fine margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.21

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Arouca 3–2 Guimaraes
Aug 2025 Guimaraes 1–1 Arouca