Benfica vs Alverca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 8 Feb, 20:30
Benfica
21 Full time
Alverca
Benfica 2–1 Alverca

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (80%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 80%
Draw 12%
Away 8%

💡 Benfica are strong favourites — roughly 8 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1643 v 1457 Benfica rated higher
Form Index DWWWD v LWWLD Benfica 2.2 · Alverca 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Benfica v Alverca

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Why we predict this

  • Benfica is the stronger side on Power Rating (1643 vs 1457).
  • Benfica is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Benfica
Form Index
Benfica
Goal expectation
Benfica
Home advantage
Benfica

Green = favours Benfica · Blue = favours Alverca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
BenficaDWWWD2.2 ppg
AlvercaLWWLD1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Benfica1643
Alverca1457
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model79% · 15% · 7%
Power Rating71% · 12% · 17%
Machine-learning91% · 6% · 3%

AI match preview

Benfica enter this Primeira Liga clash as strong favorites with an 80% chance of securing a home win, backed by an expected goal tally of 2.77 compared to Alverca's 0.75. The model projects a most likely 2-0 scoreline, indicating a solid defensive performance from the hosts, while there's a 68% probability the match will see over 2.5 goals and a balanced 50% chance of both teams scoring. These projections reflect statistical probabilities and should be considered thoughtfully—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.77 – 0.75

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 68%

Under 32%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Benfica 2–1 Alverca
Aug 2025 Alverca 1–2 Benfica