Porto vs Sp Lisbon Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Mon 9 Feb, 20:45
Porto
11 Full time
Sp Lisbon
Porto 1–1 Sp Lisbon

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 28%
Away 33%

💡 Porto have a slight edge — leaning Porto, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 40.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1677 v 1667 Porto rated higher
Form Index WWWWL v WDWWW Porto 2.4 · Sp Lisbon 2.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Porto v Sp Lisbon

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1677 vs 1667).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Porto
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Porto
Home advantage
Porto

Green = favours Porto · Blue = favours Sp Lisbon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PortoWWWWL2.4 ppg
Sp LisbonWDWWW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Porto1677
Sp Lisbon1667
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 34% · 21%
Power Rating48% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning28% · 26% · 47%

AI match preview

Porto hosts Sporting Lisbon in a closely matched Primeira Liga fixture where the home side holds a slight edge with a 39% chance of victory, while the visitors are not far behind at 33%. The model projects a low-scoring encounter with an expected goals tally favoring Porto 1.16 to 0.73, and a 0-0 draw as the most probable scoreline. With only a 29% chance of over 2.5 goals and 37% likelihood of both teams scoring, this matchup could hinge on tight defenses; remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.16 – 0.73

Most likely score

0-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 29%

Under 71%

Both teams to score

Yes 37%

No 63%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Estadio do Dragao Porto, Portugal Capacity 50,033 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Porto 1–1 Sp Lisbon
Aug 2025 Sp Lisbon 1–2 Porto