Tondela vs Alverca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Fri 13 Feb, 20:45
Tondela
11 Full time
Alverca
Tondela 1–1 Alverca

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Draw (30%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 35%
Draw 30%
Away 35%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 35.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 35.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1403 v 1452 Alverca rated higher
Form Index LLLDD v WWLDL Tondela 0.4 · Alverca 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Tondela v Alverca

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Alverca is the stronger side on Power Rating (1452 vs 1403).
  • Alverca is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Alverca
Form Index
Alverca
Goal expectation
Alverca
Home advantage
Tondela

Green = favours Tondela · Blue = favours Alverca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
TondelaLLLDD0.4 ppg
AlvercaWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Tondela1403
Alverca1452
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model31% · 33% · 37%
Power Rating39% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning26% · 30% · 45%

AI match preview

Tondela and Alverca face off in a tightly poised Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving both sides an equal 35% chance to win and a 30% probability of a draw. The expected goals are close, at 1.05 for Tondela and 1.16 for Alverca, suggesting a balanced contest likely to produce a low-scoring affair, with 1-1 as the most probable scoreline. With a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and 46% probability of both teams scoring, this match could hinge on fine margins—remember, these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.16

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Tondela 1–1 Alverca
Sept 2025 Alverca 1–0 Tondela