Guimaraes vs Alverca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 28 Feb, 20:30
Guimaraes
11 Full time
Alverca
Guimaraes 1–1 Alverca

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (51%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 51%
Draw 26%
Away 23%

💡 Guimaraes are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 57.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 57.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1476 v 1450 Guimaraes rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v LDLDD Guimaraes 1.2 · Alverca 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Guimaraes v Alverca

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1476 vs 1450).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Guimaraes
Form Index
Guimaraes
Goal expectation
Guimaraes
Home advantage
Guimaraes

Green = favours Guimaraes · Blue = favours Alverca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
GuimaraesLWLWL1.2 ppg
AlvercaLDLDD0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Guimaraes1476
Alverca1450
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model51% · 26% · 23%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning40% · 35% · 25%

AI match preview

Guimaraes holds a slight edge with a 51% chance of securing a home win against Alverca, while a draw and away victory stand at 26% and 23% respectively. The model forecasts an expected goal tally of 1.79 for Guimaraes and 1.13 for Alverca, with the most probable scoreline being a 1-1 draw. Matches between these sides have a 56% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood of both teams scoring; remember, these projections are statistical and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.13

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 56%

Under 44%

Both teams to score

Yes 58%

No 42%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Guimaraes 1–1 Alverca
Sept 2025 Alverca 2–0 Guimaraes