Famalicao vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Fri 6 Mar, 20:15
Famalicao
10 Full time
Arouca
Famalicao 1–0 Arouca

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (61%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 61%
Draw 20%
Away 19%

💡 Famalicao are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 72.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 72.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1520 v 1448 Famalicao rated higher
Form Index LWLWD v WWLWL Famalicao 1.4 · Arouca 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Famalicao v Arouca

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Why we predict this

  • Famalicao is the stronger side on Power Rating (1520 vs 1448).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Famalicao
Form Index
Arouca
Goal expectation
Famalicao
Home advantage
Famalicao

Green = favours Famalicao · Blue = favours Arouca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FamalicaoLWLWD1.4 ppg
AroucaWWLWL1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Famalicao1520
Arouca1448
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model72% · 18% · 10%
Power Rating59% · 15% · 27%
Machine-learning64% · 14% · 22%

AI match preview

Famalicao enter this Primeira Liga clash with a 61% probability of securing a home win against Arouca, backed by a strong confidence rating of 72/100. The model projects an expected goals tally of 2.51 for Famalicao versus 0.86 for Arouca, suggesting a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome. With a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability for both teams to score, this match promises intriguing attacking dynamics; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.51 – 0.86

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 65%

Under 35%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Famalicao 1–0 Arouca
Oct 2025 Arouca 1–1 Famalicao