Benfica vs Porto Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 8 Mar, 18:00
Benfica
22 Full time
Porto
Benfica 2–2 Porto

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (40%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 40%
Draw 32%
Away 28%

💡 Benfica have a slight edge — leaning Benfica, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1668 v 1689 Porto rated higher
Form Index DWWWW v LDWWW Benfica 2.6 · Porto 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Benfica v Porto

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1668 vs 1689).
  • Benfica is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 2.0 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Porto
Form Index
Benfica
Goal expectation
Porto
Home advantage
Benfica

Green = favours Benfica · Blue = favours Porto. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
BenficaDWWWW2.6 ppg
PortoLDWWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Benfica1668
Porto1689
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model25% · 34% · 41%
Power Rating43% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning29% · 47% · 25%

AI match preview

Benfica and Porto are set for a tightly contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 40% probability, though a draw remains a strong possibility at 32%. Expected goals suggest a low-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline predicted as 0-0, and a modest 40% chance for both teams to find the net. While Benfica holds a narrow advantage, fans should keep in mind these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.82 – 1.13

Most likely score

0-0

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 31%

Under 69%

Both teams to score

Yes 40%

No 60%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Benfica 2–2 Porto
Oct 2025 Porto 0–0 Benfica