Tondela vs Rio Ave Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Mon 9 Mar, 20:15
Tondela
01 Full time
Rio Ave
Tondela 0–1 Rio Ave

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 30%
Away 28%

💡 Tondela have a slight edge — leaning Tondela, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1422 v 1405 Tondela rated higher
Form Index DDDWD v LLLLD Tondela 1.4 · Rio Ave 0.2 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Tondela v Rio Ave

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1422 vs 1405).
  • Tondela is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Tondela
Form Index
Tondela
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Tondela

Green = favours Tondela · Blue = favours Rio Ave. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
TondelaDDDWD1.4 ppg
Rio AveLLLLD0.2 ppg
Power Rating
Tondela1422
Rio Ave1405
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model34% · 32% · 34%
Power Rating49% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning35% · 42% · 24%

AI match preview

Tondela and Rio Ave are set for a closely contested Primeira Liga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 42% likelihood of victory. Both teams are expected to score roughly one goal each, pointing toward a probable 1-1 draw, supported by a 48% chance of both teams finding the net. While the probability of over 2.5 goals is relatively low at 39%, this tight matchup could hinge on small margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.12

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 39%

Under 61%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Tondela 0–1 Rio Ave
Oct 2025 Rio Ave 3–0 Tondela