Arouca vs Benfica Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 14 Mar, 20:30
Arouca
12 Full time
Benfica
Arouca 1–2 Benfica

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (69%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 11%
Draw 20%
Away 69%

💡 Benfica are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 83.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 83.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1441 v 1667 Benfica rated higher
Form Index WLWLL v WWWWD Arouca 1.2 · Benfica 2.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Benfica is the stronger side on Power Rating (1667 vs 1441).
  • Benfica is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Benfica
Form Index
Benfica
Goal expectation
Benfica
Home advantage
Arouca

Green = favours Arouca · Blue = favours Benfica. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AroucaWLWLL1.2 ppg
BenficaWWWWD2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Arouca1441
Benfica1667
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model6% · 16% · 78%
Power Rating25% · 13% · 63%
Machine-learning2% · 39% · 59%

AI match preview

Benfica enter their Primeira Liga clash at Arouca as strong favorites, with a 69% chance of securing an away win according to model projections. The expected goals tally suggests Benfica could net around 2.6 goals while limiting Arouca to under one, making a 0-2 scoreline the most probable outcome. While there’s a solid 63% chance the match will see over 2.5 goals, only 46% probability exists for both teams to score, highlighting a potential for a Benfica clean sheet; remember these are statistical projections and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.66 – 2.60

Most likely score

0-2

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Arouca 1–2 Benfica
Oct 2025 Benfica 5–0 Arouca