Famalicao vs Nacional Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 21 Mar, 15:30
Famalicao
10 Full time
Nacional
Famalicao 1–0 Nacional

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (60%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 60%
Draw 22%
Away 17%

💡 Famalicao are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 71.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 71.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1538 v 1427 Famalicao rated higher
Form Index LWDWW v LLLDL Famalicao 2.0 · Nacional 0.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Famalicao is the stronger side on Power Rating (1538 vs 1427).
  • Famalicao is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Famalicao
Form Index
Famalicao
Goal expectation
Famalicao
Home advantage
Famalicao

Green = favours Famalicao · Blue = favours Nacional. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FamalicaoLWDWW2.0 ppg
NacionalLLLDL0.2 ppg
Power Rating
Famalicao1538
Nacional1427
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model56% · 29% · 14%
Power Rating65% · 12% · 23%
Machine-learning62% · 25% · 13%

AI match preview

Famalicao enters this Primeira Liga clash with a 60% chance of securing a home win against Nacional, supported by a model confidence of 71/100. The expected goals suggest a tight game, with Famalicao projected to score 1.48 goals to Nacional’s 0.64, making a 1-0 result the most probable outcome. With low probabilities for over 2.5 goals (35%) and both teams scoring (38%), this match may lean towards a narrow victory, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.64

Most likely score

1-0

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 35%

Under 65%

Both teams to score

Yes 38%

No 62%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Famalicao 1–0 Nacional
Nov 2025 Nacional 0–1 Famalicao