Moreirense vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sat 21 Mar, 15:30
Moreirense
01 Full time
Arouca
Moreirense 0–1 Arouca

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 26%
Away 30%

💡 Moreirense have a slight edge — leaning Moreirense, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 47.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1477 v 1435 Moreirense rated higher
Form Index WLDDL v LWLLL Moreirense 1.0 · Arouca 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Moreirense v Arouca

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Why we predict this

  • Moreirense is the stronger side on Power Rating (1477 vs 1435).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Moreirense
Form Index
Moreirense
Goal expectation
Moreirense
Home advantage
Moreirense

Green = favours Moreirense · Blue = favours Arouca. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MoreirenseWLDDL1.0 ppg
AroucaLWLLL0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Moreirense1477
Arouca1435
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model51% · 25% · 25%
Power Rating54% · 17% · 29%
Machine-learning52% · 26% · 22%

AI match preview

Moreirense are slightly favored with a 44% chance to claim victory over Arouca, as the model projects an expected goals tally of 1.96 to 1.33 in their favor. Despite this edge, the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the competitive balance between the sides. With a 64% probability for both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, fans can anticipate an open contest; remember, these are statistical projections and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.96 – 1.33

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 64%

Under 36%

Both teams to score

Yes 64%

No 36%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Moreirense 0–1 Arouca
Nov 2025 Arouca 0–2 Moreirense