Alverca vs Sp Lisbon Prediction

Primeira Liga 25/26 · Sun 22 Mar, 18:00
Alverca
14 Full time
Sp Lisbon
Alverca 1–4 Sp Lisbon

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (71%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 10%
Draw 19%
Away 71%

💡 Sp Lisbon are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore High · 85.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 85.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1453 v 1695 Sp Lisbon rated higher
Form Index DDDDD v DWWWD Alverca 1.0 · Sp Lisbon 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Alverca v Sp Lisbon

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Why we predict this

  • Sp Lisbon is the stronger side on Power Rating (1695 vs 1453).
  • Sp Lisbon is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.0 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Sp Lisbon
Form Index
Sp Lisbon
Goal expectation
Sp Lisbon
Home advantage
Alverca

Green = favours Alverca · Blue = favours Sp Lisbon. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AlvercaDDDDD1.0 ppg
Sp LisbonDWWWD2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Alverca1453
Sp Lisbon1695
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model9% · 21% · 70%
Power Rating23% · 12% · 65%
Machine-learning1% · 29% · 70%

AI match preview

Alverca face a tough challenge at home against Sporting Lisbon, with the model giving just a 10% chance for the hosts to claim victory. Sporting are strong favorites, carrying a 71% probability to win and an expected 2.01 goals compared to Alverca’s 0.59, making a 0-2 scoreline the most likely outcome. While there’s less than a 50% chance for over 2.5 goals and only a 40% chance both teams will score, these projections highlight Sporting’s offensive edge; remember these are statistical probabilities and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.59 – 2.01

Most likely score

0-2

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 48%

Under 52%

Both teams to score

Yes 40%

No 60%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Alverca 1–4 Sp Lisbon
Oct 2025 Sp Lisbon 2–0 Alverca